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Treasury Yields Rise

Published January 2, 2026

U.S. Treasury yields rose early in the holiday-shortened week as investors reacted to the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting which revealed a divisive split on lowering interest rates. Towards the end of the week, yields moved higher after jobless claims fell more than expected.

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest meeting, where the Fed approved a quarter-point interest rate cut to between 3.50% to 3.75%. At the meeting, Fed officials voted 9-3 in favor of an interest rate cut, revealing a deeper level of divide among policy makers as to how to help support the economy.

“Policymakers are all over the place because there is uncertainty in nearly every direction,” said global head of market strategy at TradeStation, David Russell. “They want to cut but inflation is still too high. They are unsure about data and see no reason to rush. They also know stimulus is coming and is expected to boost GDP in 2026. Markets could view these minutes as slightly hawkish because some doves were on the fence about easing. We could be near the end of this rate-cutting cycle.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of December 29 at 4.14% and traded as high as 4.18% on Wednesday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.81% and traded as high as 4.85% on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment decreased by 16,000 to 199,000 for the week ending December 27. This was less than the 220,000 claims that analysts anticipated. Continuing claims decreased by 47,000 to 1.87 million.

"The drop in initial unemployment claims to 199,000 in the week of Christmas was likely another seasonal-adjustment distortion," said chief economic adviser at Brean Capital, John Ryding. "Bigger picture, we have not seen a meaningful increase in layoffs as signaled by these data in 2025 with the average level of claims in the year at 226,100 compared to 223,000 in 2024."

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the holiday week of 12/29 at 4.20%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.88%.